Could a potential AARO repudiation of the phenomenon trigger disclosure?

We’ve all seen the reporting of what the AARO review will supposedly contain, and there’s been talk that it’s going to take a catastrophic leak a la Snowden to actually get disclosure. And maybe this report triggers something like that. But what if something much simpler (in one sense) happens?

If I’m China or Russia, and I also have recovered craft, it would be potentially the biggest geopolitical and strategic win in history to drop that news and disclose right after the USG says “nope, not only do we not have anything but there’s nothing to see here.”

Imagine the hit to US hegemony if we were to say we have nothing and another major super power says “huh, you guys must not be so advanced after all…look what we have.” Then either the USG looks incompetent and comparatively weak, or they have to backtrack and admit they have stuff…further reducing the already crumbling faith the public has in our institutions.

I frankly hope the US is the one to disclose because giving more power to those authoritarian regimes is dangerous, but at this point I’ll take disclosure from wherever it comes and hope the benefits are global.