Government Disclosures and Occam’s Razor

Hi everyone! I could use some input from this community.

I’ve been thinking- when nearly all of the compelling UFO content we see on here is directly related to world governments (US, Israel, etc), there arises a very appropriate use of Occam’s Razor.

I want to list out all of the assumptions for the two possibilities I see as far as UFOs go.

Possibility 1 is that the governments have knowledge of true NHI, and possibility 2 is that the governments want to convince the population of NHI existence.

Assumptions for Possibility 1

NHI do exist

NHI have travelled from distant stars to our world

NHI are interested in communicating with us and have been doing so for years

UFO have the technology to allow for interstellar travel and trans medium travel

A small group of people who have been in touch with NHI have kept it secret

The small group of people communicating with NHI are all under the umbrellas of the governments.

NHI don’t want to reveal themselves to anyone outside of the government for an unknown reason.

Assumptions for Possibility 2

the governments want to use NHI claims to exert more power-

the information released by the government is carefully planned

Isn’t it clear that possibility 2 is the reasonable option to believe in?

Please convince me otherwise! I’m sure I’ve missed some assumptions, so let me know what you think.