was NROL-22 overhead?

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Let’s see what Marco Langbroek, the foremost amateur astronomer tracking spy satellites, has to say. He has 3 posts on the topic of MH370. Two are relevant while a third discusses his TV appearance. The two relevant posts are:

Satellites and Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 Open Question: Could US Military SIGINT satellites help to narrow down flight MH370’s last location?

The first post mentions SBIRS was used to search, but only mentions detecting mid-air explosions, as those would have similar heat signatures to the ICBM launches the system was designed to detect:

According to the news reports, the SBIRS network was used to look for any traces of a mid-air explosion of flight MH370. Defense specialists quoted in the news article claim that the SBIRS system is capable to detect such mid-air aircraft explosions.

The second post mentions the KH-11 optimal imaging satellites, whose twin-satellite setup would enable stereoscopic imagery, similar to the description in this recent megathread. Although JunkTheRat‘s latest post has me thinking the satellite video isn’t actually stereoscopic.

These two images show his estimate of NROL-22’s vantage point: image one, image two. Observing the south Indian Ocean from this position seems impossible. Image of probable MH370 locations from this post by whiskeyandbear.

I’m curious why aryelbcn suggests to ignore satellite positioning data. Is that because of the difficulty in estimating them? Of all the people in the world, Langbroek may be the best at this, as he keeps daily historical orbit records, and can identify maneuvers down to the day. Note these maneuvers start and stop over a period of months, modifying their orbits to the tune of 0.1-1 degrees per day. So their ability to surprise us with their position in the sky should be very low.

Langbroek has shown dedication to open source Intelligence, especially on contributing to MH17 analysis, so I don’t see why he wouldn’t be trusted on this.

A previous post saying NROL-22 was overhead has since been deleted by the author, whose methodology was “mashing the “<” button hundreds of times” which incorrectly extrapolates from the 2023 orbit back to 2014 as per this reddit comment which the website faq warns against:

Q: Can I get predictions for times other than those which first appear in the prediction tables? A: Yes. You will see buttons at the top of the prediction tables which you can use to change the search period either forwards or backwards in time. Remember though, that the predictions become increasingly inaccurate the further you move away from the current time.

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