An Alternative Hypothesis

I’ve been mulling over alternative explanations for what we’ve seen (especially over the last few years) if NIH absolutely do not exist. The testimony of Grusch, Graves, and Fravor (along with Dietrich’s supporting account of the tic-tac), the 3 UAP videos first reported in NYT, public statements from Rubio and Obama – these are the things to me that elevate UAP above Bigfoot-like nonsense and into something more real. But I just cannot accept NIH as a reasonable explanation for UAP without more tangible evidence. Therefore, I’ve been racking by brain over what else could be driving all of this. Here are my proposed explanations for discussion. Note that these explanations are not mutually exclusive, and I think they are all true. But I am eager to hear others’ thoughts.

1) Government-driven disinformation campaign to advance several objectives. The most obvious being cover for sightings of classified technology, like U-2 spy planes in the 60s, F-117s in the 80s, and (potentially) exoatmospheric kill vehicles and drones since the early 2000s. A second objective is to mislead Russian & Chinese intelligence and introduce a slight possibility of the U.S. possessing a massive technological edge, and such propaganda costs practically nothing. UAP in the news could increase support for defense spending, as our military is encountering advanced craft that are “not ours.” Finally, UAP keeps conspiracy-minded Americans engaged with something relatively harmless.

2) Grifters (or entertainers to put it more politely), especially people claiming to know things but unable to say them. A lot of personalities have basically made a full time career out of this, thanks to YouTube and podcasting. They are financially incentivized to keep people engaged on UAP as much as possible, and so act like UAP hype-beasts more than investigative journalists or whistleblowers. A subclass of this category would be people that create convincing videos (e.g., skinny Bob) for their own purposes.

3) UAP with benign explanations. For instance, I would be shocked if GOFAST is anything other than a balloon combined with parallax. Other UAP explanations would be more exotic, but still not NIH; e.g., Chinese ISR systems surveying American naval groups or U.S. pilots encountering our own airborne corner radar reflectors.

These explanations are not only nonmutually exclusive, but actually feed into one another. As an example, American pilots briefly encounter Chinese drones in the West Pacific. The government leaks footage and one of the pilots gives an interview stating that it moved like no aircraft can. An anonymous person creates a more exciting (but fake) video that shows the UAP from a different angle. The UAP entertainment complex latches on and talks about it ad nausea, with a thick layer of their own no expert opinions layered on top. Since it involves real footage and credible witnesses, it’s one of the best cases even though it’s not due to NIH.