Exponential sunk cost fallacy, the IKEA effect and how mountains of circumstantial evidence does not equal truth: A warning about tying our sense of self to our belief in unverifiable claims.


You see a convincing video. It seems unbelievable, extraordinary – but what if it’s true. People start making connections, they uncover details you didn’t see the first time. Maybe there’s something to it. You start researching the circumstances yourself. You find more connections. More people catch on, people smarter than you. You see pages upon pages of analysis with illustrations and convincing assertations from purportedly credentialed individuals. You convince yourself of one or the other, even if you don’t want to, even if you don’t realize it. You grow a congruence bias. There’s just too much to ignore, mountains of complex interconnected circumstantial evidence, nobody could’ve planned all of this. It’s impossible. You argue your case. More people start sharing your idea, you know you’re on to something. You double down. You’ve invested so much of your time now, and this is what other people know you for, it’s a noble cause – if you’re right. You eventually become so certain that you blatantly disregard all evidence to the contrary. You become Ashton Forbes.

This whole MH370 fiasco should serve as a warning to everyone. No matter how deep the rabbit hole goes, and how many years of your life you’ve spent chasing the tail of the proverbial rabbit. No matter how much circumstantial evidence seems to speak in favor of a certain general theory. No matter how many credentialed people allude to a version of events, there’s always the possibility that it’s not what you think it is. There’s always a chance that you’re wrong. The longer you go without hard evidence either way, without a verifiable truth – the more of your life and sense of self is defined by your investment in revealing the truth.

Ufology is a tricky subject. It revolves around the belief that those in power are hiding something we don’t understand. Something we can’t explain. Something anomalous and otherworldly. We’ve even expanded the definition from extra terrestrial to non-human. Nobody can precisely explain what’s hidden, only ambiguous ideas based around the concept that it’s not human, it’s not ours. Something that can’t possibly be human-made. We forget how it’s much easier to amass evidence for something that has no clear definition of what it is, only of what it’s not. We can start making our own connections now that more things fit in the same box. Anti gravity, consciousness, near-death experiences, telepathy, remote viewing, astral projection, ancient civilizations, hallucinogenics, the list goes on. The body of evidence grow larger, because if A is true, surely B must be true as well? It’s all related, right? It’s just because we don’t truly understand consciousness or physics! Cue the IKEA effect.

I’m a skeptic. But i might be a gullible skeptic. I don’t know what i don’t know. I’m painfully aware that i might be overestimating my ability to discern fact from fiction. All i know is that something’s off. Grusch, Nell, Elizondo, Gallaudet, Lacatsky, Harry Reid.. They could all be wrong, lying, mistaken, delusional, misled, brainwashed, forced or pressured, or some combination thereof. They could also be right. We just don’t know. This is why the UAPDA (R.I.P) was so important.

Once facts and proof presents themselves in either direction, it’s important that we do not discount them because they don’t align with our biases. Do not be religious. Do not let your sense of self be a reflection of your investment in the subject. Don’t get in to deep. 80 years is a lot of time for circumstantial evidence to pile up, multiply, spread, reiterate and evolve into something that looks like cohesive substantial evidence – even to those on the inside.

Maybe we have made contact with NHI tech / biology. Maybe we haven’t. We deserve to have that question answered in a clear, concise and indisputable way from a group of independent vetted individuals who can be trusted and have access to all the data, following a strict and transparent process. That is why the UAPDA should’ve passed in it’s original form and why it was so important. Now the uncertainty continues, and we continue deeper into the darkness, desperate to find the meaning of it all. We must demand that the secrecy is stopped, and the disinformation is weeded out. Enough is enough, it’s time for transparency.

submitted by /u/miklschmidt
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