When the subject of UFOs/UAP is discussed, one favorite dodge by the skeptics and cynics is Carl Sagan’s favorite dodge – Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. I have been objecting to this flawed logic for decades and now other scientists like Avi Loeb are doing so as well.
Firstly, “extraordinary” is a subjective term and is not a scientific concept. So on the face of it Sagan’s claim fails. Then the skeptics and cynics claim that what he really means is that a data point that is statistically improbable requires a higher standard deviation of proof, I.e. 5-6 sigma is expected. While true, the implicit assumption is that a visitation is statistically improbable. And this is the crux of the failure of Sagan’s claim.
We don’t know the odds of a visitation! The chance of a visitation may be zero or nearly 100%. Firstly, we don’t know the limits of physics. A highly advanced civilization may have physics and technology that far exceeds anything we can imagine. Highly advanced ETs may be galivanting about the cosmos at will. Additionally even people like Hynek who were or are accomplished scientists who take this subject seriously, have often noted that the description of many events is reminiscent of something more like trans dimensional travel because of apparent portholes opening and advanced crafts emerging from that portal; and similar claims that defy point to point travel in the classic sense. There is also the potential of time travelers, who might also suddenly appear in ways we can only imagine. Beyond that, the probability of ET contact may be high in less dramatic terms, especially if one considers concepts like von Neumann probes.
Every time I hear or read a reference to the “Fermi Paradox”, I want to laugh or roll my eyes. Skeptics and cynics deny there is any chance of the thousands and thousands of reports of what clearly describe highly advance technology, being credible, and then they ask “Where are they?” “They” may be all around us and seen frequently. It is irony in the extreme. I keep waiting for a UFO to hit a SETI antenna. The entire argument is logically absurd and intellectually dishonest. They turn to Sagan’s flawed logic to dismiss any and all evidence based entirely on subjective interpretation and then feign intellectual superiority. It is in fact charlatanism in the extreme.
submitted by /u/Observer_042
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